Triple Point has created a custom model of water use and the regional economy on behalf of the Elmore County Commissioners in partnership with Panorama Environmental and HDR, Inc. The purpose of the model is to quantify cost/benefit analysis for identifying the best water development solutions.
Elmore County currently uses approximately 80,000 acre-feet per year (AFY) of groundwater in spite of an estimated recharge rate of only 40,000 AFY. This deficit is covered by removing stored water from the aquifer, thus lowering groundwater levels. Eventually, if deficit pumping continues, all supplies of stored water will be depleted. Declining levels will eventually either cause irrigators to cease pumping or the State to begin curtailing junior water rights in order to eliminate the deficit pumping and try to reverse the decline.
This analysis creates a model of Elmore County’s “water economy” based on economic and environmental data. The amount of economic output per acre-foot of water used is determined for the 2022 base year for all of the individual industries operating in the county. As water supply and demand scenarios are simulated over future years, the changes in economic output are measured. The forecast period is through 2050. The model is calibrated using the 2017 Elmore County Water Supply Alternatives Report.