Forecasting the Future: Tahoe South Event Center

Dec 31, 2019 | Tourism

The South Tahoe Event Center symbolizes the South Lake Tahoe transformation from a skiing and gaming area into a broader entertainment and outdoor recreation destination. Throughout the year, this facility will attract conventions, concerts and sporting events. The Tahoe Douglas Visitors Authority (TDVA) retained SMG Consulting and Triple Point to estimate the economic and social benefits of developing the Tahoe South Event Center.

By forecasting a set of economic scenarios out to the year 2030, this study allowed the Board of Commissioners to make informed decisions about the future of Douglas County. One scenario shows the outcome of not developing the Event Center, while two other scenarios forecast the economic impact of developing the Event Center under different underlying economic growth assumptions.

Specifically, Bayesian Structure Time Series (BSTS) models were developed to forecast revenue and visitation trends to 2030. Twenty years of monthly data allowed for more precise model fits and the separation of seasonal variation from long-term structural trends. The tourist economy was characterized by tax revenues, visitor spending, lodging metrics, population and employment.

Models were estimated for both room nights and revenues. Future economic outcomes were then forecast for each scenario. The chart below shows monthly room night forecasts through 2030.

These analytical techniques formed the basis of our analysis. Linear regression provided non-gaming revenue, room and room tax revenue, occupancy, visitation, visitor spending, sales tax, property tax, and employment forecasts to 2030 for each scenario on an annual basis. The chart below is an example showing room revenue.

The final results showed developing the Event Center will generate between 1,100 and 1,300 jobs and an estimated incremental $75 to $92 million of total tax revenues over the next 12 years. This analysis shaped the decision-making process and allowed the County Commissioners to make an informed decision regarding the strategic direction of Douglas County development of the proposed Event Center.

Recent Posts

Lake Tahoe/Truckee Regional Lodging Trend Report 2023

Lake Tahoe/Truckee Regional Lodging Trend Report 2023

Print this report đź–¨ This 2023 Lake Tahoe/Truckee Regional Lodging Trend Report informs tourism industry policymakers and residents about the evolving dynamics within the region. The destination has experienced a variety of changes, including a reduction in overnight...

AREVIA POWER SEALS LANDMARK POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT

AREVIA POWER SEALS LANDMARK POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT

Arevia Power has signed a landmark power purchase agreement with NV Energy for the largest solar energy and battery storage project in Nevada, valued at over $2.3 billion. The Libra Solar project, expected to be operational by 2027, will feature a 700 MW solar system...

Affordable Housing Econometrics

Affordable Housing Econometrics

The lack of affordable housing plagues communities and economies across the globe. Elected officials and municipal leaders everywhere know they have the problem. Research to assess the problem can provide some insight and inform policy. Solving the problem requires...

Modeling Tourism Marketing Strategies

Modeling Tourism Marketing Strategies

The tourism industry has changed. Destination Marketing Organization (DMO) tools have changed too. To compete in today's industry, a DMO must have the latest marketing technology. Over-tourism, with too many people descending on destinations during peak seasons, and...

Remote Workers Are Moving to Resorts

Remote Workers Are Moving to Resorts

The impacts of the global coronavirus pandemic have not been distributed equally. Some sectors of the economy have been devastated. Unemployment skyrocketed to 14 percent in April. Other sectors have seen business increases and many people have learned by experience...

Assessing Community Health

Assessing Community Health

Community health needs assessments (CHNA) ensure that local health care providers have the information necessary to improve decision making and resource allocation as they strive to improve their community’s health. A CHNA is a systematic evaluation of a region’s...

Solar Energy Economics

Solar Energy Economics

Solar energy has evolved from an environmental green to the color of money. As the result of rapidly declining module prices and increasing development productivity, solar energy is no longer just good for the planet. Solar is now important for business economics. In...